Chapter 214: The Overall Situation (Part 2)

“The Russians?” Yamagata Aritomo cursed, “Damn those Russians! We must go to war! Britain and Japan are an unbreakable alliance. If we miss this opportunity, it will be ten years before we can send troops to the continent again!”
The Japanese always held a complex emotion toward Russia—a mix of respect and fear.
They were well aware that the European powers supported Japan wholeheartedly and provided numerous diplomatic advantages, mainly to contain Russia’s expansion in the Far East.
The Russian Tsar harbored dreams of a “Yellow Russia,” while the Japanese advocated for a “Manchuria-Mongolia lifeline.” Both sides understood that powers like France, Britain, the United States, and Germany would not have direct conflicts with Japan for a long time, but Russia was different.
Korea, Manchuria, and the entire Far East were areas of direct conflict between the two sides. In fact, if one side gained advantage, the other would suffer. A war between Japan and Russia was something the Japanese leadership recognized clearly.
But for such a small nation, challenging an established empire like Russia was practically impossible. The only relief was that Russia’s military strength in the Far East was quite limited.
Russia’s regular army in the Far East numbered just over 10,000 troops, along with some Cossack regiments and border troops under the Ministry of Finance. In total, their forces were equivalent to one or two divisions at most.
Historically, Russia had always sought to expand its military presence in the Far East. Even after the First Sino-Japanese War, it remained unable to do so due to the great distance from Russia’s homeland. Russia’s ultimate solution was to build the Trans-Siberian Railway.
With the completion of the Trans-Siberian Railway, Russia could maintain a regular army of around 100,000 troops in the Far East. Thanks to the railway’s efficient transportation capabilities, Russia could continuously deploy new units there. The Japanese, however, launched the Russo-Japanese War before Russia could gain a military advantage.
What followed was a nightmare for the Russians. Even with the Trans-Siberian Railway, many troops needed about half a year to reach the battlefield. In that era, sending reinforcements from Europe to the Far East was an even greater nightmare.
The Russian governor-general in Siberia could use this army of around 10,000 troops to seize fertile lands from the Qing Dynasty time and again. But the Japanese believed they would be the victors in future wars.
Both sides were roughly on the same level in terms of equipment. If the Japanese had any flaw, it was that their army craved bloodshed, eager to vent all their anger on the Russians, yet afraid of defeat.
Yamagata Aritomo’s emotions represented those of all the Japanese. He slammed the table and said, “We must go to war! Even if it means sacrificing 100,000 lives, we must achieve prosperity for East Asia!”
Oyama Iwao remained calm, with a will as strong as steel. “Should we leave troops behind in the homeland?”
“Let the settlement troops stay!” Itō Hirobumi’s resolve surpassed theirs all. “This is a glorious battle. The settlement troops alone are enough!”

The so-called “tuntian soldiers” referred to the several thousand soldiers sent by Japan to Hokkaido; they did not belong to the seven active military units. As for their combat capability, the term “tuntian soldiers” itself made that clear. Before the Meiji era, Hokkaido was almost a wasteland, constantly under threat of Russian invasion. Thus, the new government transferred some bankrupt farmers to Hokkaido and established the tuntian soldier system. These soldiers could be considered Japan’s last reserve force. Towards the end of the Sino-Japanese War of 1894–1895, using these tuntian soldiers as the core, the 7th Division, consisting of only four to five thousand soldiers, was formed as a reinforcement force for the decisive battle in the North China Plain. However, before the 7th Division, which had no division commander, arrived in Tokyo, news of the peace treaty at Shimonoseki reached them. During the Russo-Japanese War, the 7th Division also served as a reserve force for the Japanese army. It was only when the battles around Port Arthur stalled that the 7th Division set out, using human wave tactics to repeatedly attack Height 203. But Hirobumi Ito had already made up his mind: all existing military units were to be sent to the mainland to fight. “We must commit all the strength accumulated since the Meiji Restoration and stand with England—we will not fail!” As Chief of the General Staff, Iwao Oyama considered military aspects: “Apart from the tuntian soldiers? Mobilize everyone else! It’s militarily feasible, but we must mobilize reserve infantry regiments.” Like the Black Flag Army, Japan also managed to establish a mobilization mechanism. Depending on the intensity of the war, they would sequentially mobilize reserve infantry regiments, reserve infantry battalions, and reserve infantry brigades. During the Russo-Japanese War, the Japanese army even mobilized reserve infantry divisions. By the time of the War of Resistance against Japan, this mobilization system was replaced by the use of special mobilized divisions. However, at that time, Japan’s national strength was still relatively weak, and mobilizing reserve infantry regiments was almost at its limit. “To counter the threat from the Russians, we must send two more reserve infantry regiments to Hokkaido…” “For domestic defense, we need fifteen to twenty reserve infantry regiments… All military units must be staffed according to wartime regulations!” Neither the British nor anyone else expected that the Japanese would be so determined in such a campaign. They only hoped that Japan would send two of its seven military units to help suppress the Black Flag Army. But what they didn’t expect was that Japan’s political elite, represented by Hirobumi Ito, resolved to go all in. Yamagata Aritomo’s suggestion was even more direct: “Fifteen reserve infantry regiments and the police are sufficient for national defense! The rest of the mobilized reserve infantry regiments must be ready to go to battle immediately.” Hirobumi Ito’s proposal was relatively moderate: “The Imperial Guard should remain in Tokyo for now, but if the war situation demands it, I suggest that His Majesty the Emperor lead an expedition to the front lines!” These outstanding figures in modern Japanese history were well aware of the threat posed by the Black Flag Army. Although the intelligence they had was incomplete, it was clear that if the Black Flag Army succeeded in unifying the country, Japan would be forced to stay confined to the mainland forever, unable to expand eastward.

The Black Flag Army has a glorious history in past battles. In the battles in Vietnam, they successfully turned the French into a laughingstock among the great powers. In terms of current combat strength, the entire Black Flag Army is sufficient to confront a single Japanese regiment. This information comes from first-hand accounts of a Japanese spy who ventured into North Vietnam multiple times. However, after entering Guangxi, the Black Flag Army had expanded significantly, with its troop numbers more than tripled—though their combat strength might not be tripled as well—but this still inspired the Japanese to take drastic action.