Chapter 163: The Stakes

Paris.
Spring in 1884 was unusually cold, so much so that every time the cabinet discussed the Vietnam issue, they had to close the windows tightly to ward off the icy winds coming from the east.
The Minister of the Navy and Colonies held up a report sent from Vietnam: “The commander of the troops in the Tokyo region has agreed to launch a surprise attack on the Chinese forces in Bắc Ninh. Although the Chinese forces have forty to fifty infantry battalions, their combat strength is weak, and they are no match for us.”
Ferry was a typical French man, but his temperament had been worn down by decades of political struggles. What remained after that was nothing but the heart of a Frenchman.
He wasn’t weak, but he wasn’t strong either. He wasn’t radical, nor was he conservative. He was a politician born of the Third Republic, just like his political faction—opportunists.
Historically, he was a cautious man who wouldn’t take risks unless he could succeed completely in a given task. During his tenure, he didn’t speak of revenge against Germany but focused on expanding France’s colonies.
Though he didn’t achieve complete success historically, he and his successors laid the foundation for France’s colonial empire. But in this timeline, he faced serious troubles.
France had to fight two colonial wars: in Madagascar and Vietnam. Although the queen of Madagascar resisted fiercely, disease was the real threat to the French. In any case, a scandal involving reparations to a colonial country wouldn’t occur during Ferry’s term.
But the Vietnam issue deeply troubled Ferry. He even considered it the worst decision of his political career.
Yet most people fail to become great leaders because they can’t correct their mistakes. He had made a mistake regarding Vietnam, but he lacked the strength to fix it.
Giving up Vietnam might earn him a few cheers from the few anti-war members in parliament, but all his loyal allies would immediately turn against him. In fact, he was more worried about his allies in the cabinet than his enemies.
In the French Third Republic, cabinet collapses weren’t just part of political life—they were political life itself. This peculiar republic embraced all kinds of French political ideologies—leftists, rightists, conservatives, radicals, monarchists, Bonapartists, Republicans…
Ferry was a staunch Republican, but the Republicans had already split into radicals who opposed the war and moderates who supported it.
It seemed like a joke: the radicals opposed colonial wars, while the moderates supported expanding them. Yet it was an undeniable fact—that the so-called moderates advocated for a conciliatory policy toward Germany, strengthening the country’s power, expanding overseas colonies, and ultimately defeating Germany.
The radicals, on the other hand, longed for a great war that would start soon. They ignored all difficulties, yet their status in the French Republic kept rising, even showing signs of challenging the moderates.

Historically, the many difficulties faced by the French in the later stages of the Sino-French War stemmed from the radicals nearly winning the parliamentary elections in 1884, constantly challenging the moderates’ colonial war policies. France was indeed unable to completely defeat the Chinese army in one fell swoop, resulting in a dilemma.
Now, Ferry felt the pressure of the parliamentary elections, so he needed a victory—even if it was merely illusory. “Are we completely confident in our expedition to Beining?”
“We will achieve a perfect victory. If this battle turns into a tragedy like that of 1812, I am willing to stand before a military court along with the commander of the troops in the Tokyo region.”
“If we win, we’ll be able to regain the upper hand in the parliamentary elections. Well, what kind of support does General Guibaud need?”
“He hopes to add two more infantry brigades to the Tokyo region, so that we can maintain the strength of two infantry divisions there.”
“I don’t need to send too many troops to the distant East.” Ferry rarely spoke of revenge or war, but he shared the same sentiment as all Frenchmen: “We must prepare for war.”
“I understand.”
But politics was always so frustrating. Prime Minister Ferry picked up his pen anyway. “Although I can’t send two full infantry brigades to Annam, I can send reinforcements that will satisfy the frontline commanders.”
He turned to the Minister of the Army and asked, “What’s the name of the officer you recommended? The one who’s the head of the riflemen battalion?”
“Erminger,” replied the Minister of the Army. “He was the top graduate of the Saint-Cyr Military Academy and showed outstanding performance as a head of riflemen battalion and during his service in Africa.”
“I’ve heard of him. He’s an excellent officer, one of the most outstanding graduates of Saint-Cyr. Send such a talented person to the most difficult place—he will shine.”
The Minister of the Navy asked, “Just one person?”
“A regiment… four battalions, perhaps. Let him use these forces to form an infantry brigade.”
Ferry didn’t realize that he had just opened Pandora’s box.
Shanxi.
After Liu Yongfu led his troops southward, the war situation suddenly eased again.
Although nominally only 2,800 soldiers were taken away, Liu Yongfu actually took with him all the supplies of an entire brigade. To support his southern advance, the Black Flag Army even mobilized its logistics forces, with half of them responsible for transporting supplies.
With the shift in the focus of the war, the French forces managed to catch their breath slightly, but this didn’t mean their losses were small.
According to their own statistics, even without major “battles,” fifty soldiers of various nationalities died, were injured, went missing, or deserted each day. While these seemed like minor skirmishes, that amounted to 1,500 people per month—equivalent to two entire infantry divisions.
Over a year, that would be 18,000 people, enough to deplete two entire infantry divisions, and this was still without any major “battles.”
Meanwhile, the Black Flag Army remained quite active, especially the Hua Jian Sect. Their religious troops had grown to include 800 rifles and 1,200 warrior defenders, and they were constantly attacking the Vietnamese indigenous forces.

Meanwhile, the main forces of the Black Flag Army, which had been fighting for two months, finally got a much-needed rest time and were busy adjusting their equipment and replenishing their troops—everyone knew that the next battle would determine who would rule all of Vietnam.
“Beining…” Liu Yu held the map and observed, “There are about twenty to thirty thousand Qing troops, right?”
“Around thirty thousand, fifty to sixty battalions,” Jiang Ningxue said softly beside him. “The staff headquarters can’t decide yet either; they estimate a 50-50 chance for Shanxi or Beining.”
The French did not deploy the four infantry battalions reinforcing them in Hanoi but instead placed them in Haiphong, using them to form a new infantry brigade—clearly, this would be their main force for the next attack.
However, the French were doing an excellent job of keeping things secret, so much so that Liu Yu still couldn’t determine their attack direction.
“Hanoi? Beining?”
In history, after dealing with the Black Flag Army in Shanxi, the French swiftly swept through the tens of thousands of Qing troops in Beining. Unlike the fierce battles outside Shanxi’s cities, that was merely a logistical operation.
But in this timeline, Shanxi was still firmly in the hands of the Black Flag Army, leaving the French in a passive position across the entire battlefield. Whether they would attack Beining directly was extremely difficult to judge.
As he pondered, Ruan Menglian said softly, “Lord Tang Jingsong requests an audience.”
“Hello, Lord Tang!”
“Hello, Commander Liu!”
After exchanging pleasantries, Tang Jingsong revealed his purpose: “I plan to take one of my regiments to Beining.”
“Beining? Are the French sure they’ll attack Beining?”
Tang Jingsong’s eyes flickered uncertainly. “This is an opportunity!”
A true man cannot go a day without power, and Tang Jingsong was such a man: “The personal guard battalion and the Song-character battalion both came from Beining and have no combat capability—send them back there.”
“But Liu Yongfu just left, and now you’re taking another 1,300 men from me—this is like cutting off my flesh!”
Tang Jingsong replied without hesitation, “There are tens of thousands in Beining.”
“You?” Liu Yu didn’t expect Tang Jingsong to be so bold, but he also knew that this man might come up with daring ideas but lack the ability to put them into practice.
“It’s better to be cautious with these matters.”
“1,300 men—all second-rate troops in the Black Flag Army. Aren’t you willing to risk that much?”
Tang Jingsong saw an opportunity right before him. If successful, he might not become the second Zeng Wenzheng, but at least the second loyal minister to the emperor. He knew he couldn’t reach the tens of thousands of Qing troops in Beining, but that didn’t matter—his three infantry battalions were all elite forces; one of them could handle the other two.
What worried Liu Yu even more was that once the battle started, Tang Jingsong might get scared by the gunfire, abandon his troops, and run for his life.
But it was still a great idea—after all, there were tens of thousands of Qing troops in Beining. If he could capture them, it could save him years of effort.

“I agree to let you go, but not alone.” Liu Yu hesitated for a while before saying, “You can choose one of our Black Flag Army officers to assist you with military matters.”
Only by bringing the troops back together could they avoid excessive losses, but after losing three battalions, Liu Yu found his forces to be severely inadequate.
Yet he resolved to go through with it: “Lord Tang, if this succeeds… the achievements of the late Wen Zhenggong will seem as easy as reading palm lines.”
Tang Jingsong smiled lightly and said, “What I desire are precisely such remarkable feats as those of the former Ming Dynasty’s Chengyi Bo.”
The foremost civil official of the founding dynasty, and an unparalleled strategist during the southern migration.